David Jackson

I’m curious about the population growth “megatrend” that is often stated as fact but is highly questionable.

Between now and 2050, world population is forecast to be 15–20% higher at most. I say “at most” as the UN forecast is continually revised down due to faster-than-expected birth-rate declines.

Furthermore, even if you accept the forecast, the make-up of population will be very different from today. It will be a much older population in many countries, and current rich economies are forecast to be a much smaller share of the global population. This is because current OECD members will have a flat population at best while Africa grows substantially. Notably, China will substantially shrink.

The certainty of China shrinking is far greater than the certainty of Africa growing, as the population has already peaked. I think this will have enormous implications for food demand in both directions.

We like simple “megatrends”, especially for online posts, but under the surface things are always a lot more interesting.

“Population growth, urbanisation, the infrastructure of decarbonisation, capital stock replacement and rising living standards are expected to drive demand for steel, non–ferrous metals, and fertilisers for decades to come. “ – 2024 BHP Economic and Commodity Outlook

BHPs economic and commodity outlook